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This executive summary of the 2007 "Global Report on Conflict, Governance, and State Fragility: Gauging System Performance and Fragility in the Globalization Era" is intended to highlight portions of the report's content and conclusions. Authors Monty G. Marshall and Jack Goldstone of George Mason University designed the "Global Report" to track key trends in the emerging global system and gauge general system performance in an era of dynamic globalization. The report begins with a brief discussion of general system trends in conflict, governance, and development. This includes tracking governance in three categories: democracy, autocracy, and anocracy (mixed regimes with some autocratic and some democratic features), examining the occurrence of armed conflict, including incidences of terrorism, and analyzing development in two areas: 1) global and regional distributions of income, and 2) levels of energy (oil) dependence and independence. The report concludes with the "State Fragility Index and Matrix", a new measure of state capabilities. This index is based on a matrix of indicators measuring state effectiveness and legitimacy in the key dimensions of security, governance, economics, and social development for every country of the world (with population greater than 500,000). The following four graphs and charts in this summary are a sample of the detailed analysis in the 2007 "Global Report."
Figure 3, Global Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2006, reveals a dramatic decline in both the numbers of states affected by major armed conflicts and in the general magnitude of such conflicts. This figure notes a prominent increase in civil warfare since the mid-1950s and subsequently dramatic decrease since 1990. Interstate warfare has remained at a relatively low level since the end of the Second World War, but the report states that incidences of conflict have been quite common: there have been over 300 distinct episodes of major armed conflict and during the past twenty-five years, over one-half of all countries have experienced some major armed conflict (85 of 162 countries).
In the area of development, the global report establishes overall baseline economic conditions such as Table 1 to gain a comparative perspective on "relative income" and "relative growth" among the regional sub-systems that comprise the global system.
Also in the area of development, the report creates global and regional profiles of income distribution by constructing various Lorenz curves of income against population shares in the societal–system. The purpose of this is to measure system disparities and track system integration over time. Figure 6, the Lorenz curve for the global system, reveals that the global system as a whole is a societal-system in which income production is highly concentrated; a system that is profoundly split into "Haves" (about 15% of the global population) and "Have-nots." As of 2005, eighty percent of the population accounted for less than twenty percent of production income.
And finally, the "State Fragility Index and Matrix" rates the global system's 162 countries according to their level of fragility in both "effectiveness" and "legitimacy" across four dimensions: security, governance, economic development, and social development. Each of the Matrix indicators is rated on a four-point fragility scale: 0 "no fragility," 1 "low fragility," 2 "medium fragility," and 3 "high fragility," and all four Matrix dimensions have separate column highlights that provide information regarding a key factor characteristic to dimension. The Matrix is accompanied by detailed technical notes that identify the data sources used and describe how the various indicators were constructed. This shortened version of Table 3 presents only the first ten countries in the matrix.
This executive summary of the 2007 "Global Report on Conflict, Governance, and State Fragility: Gauging System Performance and Fragility in the Globalization Era" is intended to highlight portions of the report's content and conclusions. Authors Monty G. Marshall and Jack Goldstone of George Mason University designed the "Global Report" to track key trends in the emerging global system and gauge general system performance in an era of dynamic globalization. The report begins with a brief discussion of general system trends in conflict, governance, and development. This includes tracking governance in three categories: democracy, autocracy, and anocracy (mixed regimes with some autocratic and some democratic features), examining the occurrence of armed conflict, including incidences of terrorism, and analyzing development in two areas: 1) global and regional distributions of income, and 2) levels of energy (oil) dependence and independence. The report concludes with the "State Fragility Index and Matrix", a new measure of state capabilities. This index is based on a matrix of indicators measuring state effectiveness and legitimacy in the key dimensions of security, governance, economics, and social development for every country of the world (with population greater than 500,000). The following four graphs and charts in this summary are a sample of the detailed analysis in the 2007 "Global Report."
Figure 3, Global Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2006, reveals a dramatic decline in both the numbers of states affected by major armed conflicts and in the general magnitude of such conflicts. This figure notes a prominent increase in civil warfare since the mid-1950s and subsequently dramatic decrease since 1990. Interstate warfare has remained at a relatively low level since the end of the Second World War, but the report states that incidences of conflict have been quite common: there have been over 300 distinct episodes of major armed conflict and during the past twenty-five years, over one-half of all countries have experienced some major armed conflict (85 of 162 countries).
Figure 3. Global Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2006
In the area of development, the global report establishes overall baseline economic conditions such as Table 1 to gain a comparative perspective on "relative income" and "relative growth" among the regional sub-systems that comprise the global system.
Table 1. Regional Income, Relative Income, and Relative Growth
Also in the area of development, the report creates global and regional profiles of income distribution by constructing various Lorenz curves of income against population shares in the societal–system. The purpose of this is to measure system disparities and track system integration over time. Figure 6, the Lorenz curve for the global system, reveals that the global system as a whole is a societal-system in which income production is highly concentrated; a system that is profoundly split into "Haves" (about 15% of the global population) and "Have-nots." As of 2005, eighty percent of the population accounted for less than twenty percent of production income.
Figure 6. Global System Profile
And finally, the "State Fragility Index and Matrix" rates the global system's 162 countries according to their level of fragility in both "effectiveness" and "legitimacy" across four dimensions: security, governance, economic development, and social development. Each of the Matrix indicators is rated on a four-point fragility scale: 0 "no fragility," 1 "low fragility," 2 "medium fragility," and 3 "high fragility," and all four Matrix dimensions have separate column highlights that provide information regarding a key factor characteristic to dimension. The Matrix is accompanied by detailed technical notes that identify the data sources used and describe how the various indicators were constructed. This shortened version of Table 3 presents only the first ten countries in the matrix.
Table 3. State Fragility Index and Matrix 2007
